In the first half of 2017, the market's benchmark forecast is a far cry from the beginning of the year.
The most dramatic change in expectations is the renminbi's exchange rate and the fed's tightening pace. At the beginning of the year it was widely believed that the yuan would break seven times against the dollar, and yellen would continue to raise the doves to the end. However, the renminbi has held steady against the dollar in mid-year and expectations of a weaker renminbi have weakened sharply, while the fed has raised its expectations for a hawkish rate hike in two successive hikes in March and June.
As far as the market is concerned, the expected changes in the trend are mainly reflected in two dimensions: first, the change in the expectations of RMB exchange rate is leading to the adjustment of RMB internationalization trend. The renminbi stabilised for half a year, crushing the devaluation with facts. As depreciation anticipated dent, irrational capital flight in China is restrained, outside view of renminbi assets is positive, at this point, the internationalisation of the renminbi in order picking up A good time, and the area of accelerating, bonds of timely opened in MSCI, A shares, as well as major national currencies to the renminbi foreign exchange reserves investment inclination adjustment, etc., and to further the RMB exchange rate stable and continuous strengthening provides the power of the internationalisation of the renminbi. Second, the continued shift in market expectations for China's economic growth is accelerating the shift in China's economic cycle. Because the global economic growth center has been in a long-term downward trend, the market is likely to look overly optimistic in the short term. That is why the IMF has reduced its forecast for global growth almost every quarter over the past few years, a general trend that will be no exception in 2017.
The only exception is the Chinese economy. The IMF has raised China's economic growth forecasts for a number of times over the past year, with the latest growth forecast for 2017 rising to 6.7 per cent, in effect a flat figure for the economy in 2016. And, as we observe, the financial markets do not really anticipate a rebound in the Chinese economy that starts in the second half of 2016. Although said that this round of short cycle rebound is drawing to a close, the second half of China's economic growth is still under pressure, but with the expected adjustment and China's economic structure transformation, the Chinese economy long cycle "L" type is downward is bottoming, this means that China's economy is a new round of long-period upward even has yet to come, but the turning point is accelerating. Given the long-term hibernating of the global economy, the positive performance of China's economic fundamentals and expectations is the fundamental cause of our cautious optimism about the Chinese economy and the Chinese market.
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